TrendForce Consulting: Nvidia will push Blackwell Ultra and B200A in 2025, which will pull up the proportion of HBM3e 12hi consumption to 40%

According to the latest HBM report from TrendForce Consulting, with the iteration of AI chips, the HBM (high bandwidth memory) capacity of a single chip has also increased significantly. NVIDIA is currently the largest buyer in the HBM market, and it is expected that after the launch of products such as Blackwell Ultra and B200A in 2025, its purchase share in the HBM market will exceed 70%.

TrendForce Consulting said that taking NVIDIA Hopper series chips as an example, the HBM capacity of the first generation H100 is 80GB, and the H200 in 2024 has jumped to 144GB. Driven by the growth of AI chips and single-chip capacity, the consumption of HBM in the industry as a whole has significantly increased, with an estimated annual growth rate of more than 200% in 2024, and HBM consumption will double again in 2025.

According to a recent supply chain survey by TrendForce Consulting, NVIDIA plans the downscaling version of the B200A to OEM (original equipment manufacturer) customers, which will use four HBM3e 12hi (12-layer stack), which is half the number of other B-series chips. TrendForce Consulting pointed out that even if the HBM carrying capacity of B200A is small, it still does not affect the HBM consumption of the overall market, because the diversity of chip choices helps to improve the procurement willingness of small and medium-sized customers.

By 2025, NVIDIA's consumption of HBM3e is expected to exceed 85%

TrendForce Consulting said that although SK hynix (SK Hynix) and Micron (Micron Technology) began mass production of HBM3e in the second quarter of 2024, NVIDIA H200 shipments will drive the proportion of NVIDIA's consumption in the overall HBM3e market, which is estimated to exceed 60% in 2024. Entering 2025, due to the Blackwell platform fully equipped with HBM3e, the increase in the number of product layers, and the increase in single-chip HBM capacity, NVIDIA's overall consumption of HBM3e market will further increase to more than 85%.

HBM3e 12hi is the focus of market attention in the second half of 2024. It is expected that the Blackwell Ultra launched in 2025 will use 8 HBM3e 12hi, GB200 may also be upgraded, coupled with the planning of B200A, so it is estimated that the proportion of 12hi products in HBM3e in 2025 will increase to 40%, and there is an opportunity to rise.

As we enter the HBM3e 12hi stage, the technical difficulty also increases, and the verification progress becomes more important, and the order of completion of the verification may affect the proportion of the order. At present, HBM's three major supplier products are under verification, of which Samsung is leading the verification progress and actively increasing its market share. This year's production capacity is broadly determined, with the main production capacity still dominated by HBM3e 8hi (8-layer stack), so the HBM3e 12hi output growth is still mainly contributed to 2025.

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